Optimizing the Safety Margins Governing a Deterministic Design Process while Considering the Effects of a Future Test and Redesign on Epistemic Model Uncertainty

At the initial design stage, engineers often rely on low-fidelity models that have high uncertainty. Model uncertainty is reducible and is classified as epistemic uncertainty; uncertainty due to variability is irreducible and classified as aleatory uncertainty. In a deterministic safety-margin-based design approach, uncertainty is implicitly compensated for by using fixed conservative values in place of aleatory variables and ensuring the design satisfies a safety-margin with respect to design constraints. After an initial design is selected, testing (e.g. physical experiment or high-fidelity simulation) is performed to reduce epistemic uncertainty and ensure the design achieves the targeted levels of safety. Testing is used to calibrate low-fidelity models and prescribe redesign when tests are not passed. After calibration, reduced epistemic model uncertainty can be leveraged through redesign to restore safety or improve design performance; however, redesign may be associated with substantial costs or delays. In this work, the possible effects of a future test and redesign are considered while the initial design is optimized using only a low-fidelity model. The goal is to develop a general method for the integrated optimization of the design, testing, and redesign process that allows for the tradeoff between the risk of future redesign and the associated performance and reliability benefits. This is accomplished by formulating the design, testing, and redesign process in terms of safety-margins and optimizing these margins based on expected performance, expected probability of failure, and probability of redesign. The first objective of this study is to determine how the degree of conservativeness in the initial design relates to the expected design performance after a test and possible redesign. The second objective is to develop a general method for modeling epistemic model uncertainty and calibration when simulating a possible future test and redesign. The third objective is to apply the method of simulating a future test and redesign to a sounding rocket design example

Formation of Long-Lived Color Centers for Broadband Visible Light Emission in Low-Dimensional Layered Perovskites.

We investigate the origin of the broadband visible emission in layered hybrid lead-halide perovskites and its connection with structural and photophysical properties. We study ⟨001⟩ oriented thin films of hexylammonium (HA) lead iodide, (C6H16N)2PbI4, and dodecylammonium (DA) lead iodide, (C12H28N)2PbI4, by combining first-principles simulations with time-resolved photoluminescence, steady-state absorption and X-ray diffraction measurements on cooling from 300 to 4 K. Ultrafast transient absorption and photoluminescence measurements are used to track the formation and recombination of emissive states. In addition to the excitonic photoluminescence near the absorption edge, we find a red-shifted, broadband (full-width at half-maximum of about 0.4 eV), emission band below 200 K, similar to emission from ⟨110⟩ oriented bromide 2D perovskites at room temperature. The lifetime of this sub-band-gap emission exceeds that of the excitonic transition by orders of magnitude. We use X-ray diffraction measurements to study the changes in crystal lattice with temperature. We report changes in the octahedral tilt and lattice spacing in both materials, together with a phase change around 200 K in DA2PbI4. DFT simulations of the HA2PbI4 crystal structure indicate that the low-energy emission is due to interstitial iodide and related Frenkel defects. Our results demonstrate that white-light emission is not limited to ⟨110⟩ oriented bromide 2D perovskites but a general property of this class of system, and highlight the importance of defect control for the formation of low-energy emissive sites, which can provide a pathway to design tailored white-light emitters

A multi-stage genome-wide association study of bladder cancer identifies multiple susceptibility loci.

We conducted a multi-stage, genome-wide association study of bladder cancer with a primary scan of 591,637 SNPs in 3,532 affected individuals (cases) and 5,120 controls of European descent from five studies followed by a replication strategy, which included 8,382 cases and 48,275 controls from 16 studies. In a combined analysis, we identified three new regions associated with bladder cancer on chromosomes 22q13.1, 19q12 and 2q37.1: rs1014971, (P = 8 × 10⁻¹²) maps to a non-genic region of chromosome 22q13.1, rs8102137 (P = 2 × 10⁻¹¹) on 19q12 maps to CCNE1 and rs11892031 (P = 1 × 10⁻⁷) maps to the UGT1A cluster on 2q37.1. We confirmed four previously identified genome-wide associations on chromosomes 3q28, 4p16.3, 8q24.21 and 8q24.3, validated previous candidate associations for the GSTM1 deletion (P = 4 × 10⁻¹¹) and a tag SNP for NAT2 acetylation status (P = 4 × 10⁻¹¹), and found interactions with smoking in both regions. Our findings on common variants associated with bladder cancer risk should provide new insights into the mechanisms of carcinogenesis

Enhanced Immunogenicity, Mortality Protection, and Reduced Viral Brain Invasion by Alum Adjuvant with an H5N1 Split-Virion Vaccine in the Ferret

Pre-pandemic development of an inactivated, split-virion avian influenza vaccine is challenged by the lack of pre-existing immunity and the reduced immunogenicity of some H5 hemagglutinins compared to that of seasonal influenza vaccines. Identification of an acceptable effective adjuvant is needed to improve immunogenicity of a split-virion avian influenza vaccine.No serum antibodies were detected after vaccination with unadjuvanted vaccine, whereas alum-adjuvanted vaccination induced a robust antibody response. Survival after unadjuvanted dose regimens of 30 µg, 7.5 µg and 1.9 µg (21-day intervals) was 64%, 43%, and 43%, respectively, yet survivors experienced weight loss, fever and thrombocytopenia. Survival after unadjuvanted dose regimen of 22.5 µg (28-day intervals) was 0%, suggesting important differences in intervals in this model. In contrast to unadjuvanted survivors, either dose of alum-adjuvanted vaccine resulted in 93% survival with minimal morbidity and without fever or weight loss. The rarity of brain inflammation in alum-adjuvanted survivors, compared to high levels in unadjuvanted vaccine survivors, suggested that improved protection associated with the alum adjuvant was due to markedly reduced early viral invasion of the ferret brain.Alum adjuvant significantly improves efficacy of an H5N1 split-virion vaccine in the ferret model as measured by immunogenicity, mortality, morbidity, and brain invasion

Genome-Wide Association Study in East Asians Identifies Novel Susceptibility Loci for Breast Cancer

Genetic factors play an important role in the etiology of both sporadic and familial breast cancer. We aimed to discover novel genetic susceptibility loci for breast cancer. We conducted a four-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 19,091 cases and 20,606 controls of East-Asian descent including Chinese, Korean, and Japanese women. After analyzing 690,947 SNPs in 2,918 cases and 2,324 controls, we evaluated 5,365 SNPs for replication in 3,972 cases and 3,852 controls. Ninety-four SNPs were further evaluated in 5,203 cases and 5,138 controls, and finally the top 22 SNPs were investigated in up to 17,423 additional subjects (7,489 cases and 9,934 controls). SNP rs9485372, near the TGF-β activated kinase (TAB2) gene in chromosome 6q25.1, showed a consistent association with breast cancer risk across all four stages, with a P-value of 3.8×10−12 in the combined analysis of all samples. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 0.89 (0.85–0.94) and 0.80 (0.75–0.86) for the A/G and A/A genotypes, respectively, compared with the genotype G/G. SNP rs9383951 (P = 1.9×10−6 from the combined analysis of all samples), located in intron 5 of the ESR1 gene, and SNP rs7107217 (P = 4.6×10−7), located at 11q24.3, also showed a consistent association in each of the four stages. This study provides strong evidence for a novel breast cancer susceptibility locus represented by rs9485372, near the TAB2 gene (6q25.1), and identifies two possible susceptibility loci located in the ESR1 gene and 11q24.3, respectively

The 5p15.33 Locus Is Associated with Risk of Lung Adenocarcinoma in Never-Smoking Females in Asia

Genome-wide association studies of lung cancer reported in populations of European background have identified three regions on chromosomes 5p15.33, 6p21.33, and 15q25 that have achieved genome-wide significance with p-values of 10−7 or lower. These studies have been performed primarily in cigarette smokers, raising the possibility that the observed associations could be related to tobacco use, lung carcinogenesis, or both. Since most women in Asia do not smoke, we conducted a genome-wide association study of lung adenocarcinoma in never-smoking females (584 cases, 585 controls) among Han Chinese in Taiwan and found that the most significant association was for rs2736100 on chromosome 5p15.33 (p = 1.30×10−11). This finding was independently replicated in seven studies from East Asia totaling 1,164 lung adenocarcinomas and 1,736 controls (p = 5.38×10−11). A pooled analysis achieved genome-wide significance for rs2736100. This SNP marker localizes to the CLPTM1L-TERT locus on chromosome 5p15.33 (p = 2.60×10−20, allelic risk = 1.54, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.41–1.68). Risks for heterozygote and homozygote carriers of the minor allele were 1.62 (95% CI; 1.40–1.87), and 2.35 (95% CI: 1.95–2.83), respectively. In summary, our results show that genetic variation in the CLPTM1L-TERT locus of chromosome 5p15.33 is directly associated with the risk of lung cancer, most notably adenocarcinoma

SNAPSHOT USA 2019 : a coordinated national camera trap survey of the United States

This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.With the accelerating pace of global change, it is imperative that we obtain rapid inventories of the status and distribution of wildlife for ecological inferences and conservation planning. To address this challenge, we launched the SNAPSHOT USA project, a collaborative survey of terrestrial wildlife populations using camera traps across the United States. For our first annual survey, we compiled data across all 50 states during a 14-week period (17 August - 24 November of 2019). We sampled wildlife at 1509 camera trap sites from 110 camera trap arrays covering 12 different ecoregions across four development zones. This effort resulted in 166,036 unique detections of 83 species of mammals and 17 species of birds. All images were processed through the Smithsonian's eMammal camera trap data repository and included an expert review phase to ensure taxonomic accuracy of data, resulting in each picture being reviewed at least twice. The results represent a timely and standardized camera trap survey of the USA. All of the 2019 survey data are made available herein. We are currently repeating surveys in fall 2020, opening up the opportunity to other institutions and cooperators to expand coverage of all the urban-wild gradients and ecophysiographic regions of the country. Future data will be available as the database is updated at eMammal.si.edu/snapshot-usa, as well as future data paper submissions. These data will be useful for local and macroecological research including the examination of community assembly, effects of environmental and anthropogenic landscape variables, effects of fragmentation and extinction debt dynamics, as well as species-specific population dynamics and conservation action plans. There are no copyright restrictions; please cite this paper when using the data for publication.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta